Every claim we track, placed on the same scale, with the evidence behind it and what would change our mind. Where we do not know, we say so.
14 claims tracked · 0 established · 0 ruled out · 14 still unresolved
The short version
An answer can run either way. We call a claim established when the evidence puts it above 80 per cent, and ruled out when it falls below 20. Almost everything circulating about this war sits in the middle, and the job of this site is to move claims out of it — in whichever direction the evidence goes.
Where
Shaded regions carry records. Dots are reported incident areas, not confirmed impact points.
A strike was reported at Semera, in Afar. It appears in the relayed material only as one of the locations the Critical Threats Project examined with satellite imagery. No date, target or out…
A second reported blast location in Addis Ababa on the night of 1 October, at a military site in the Meshalokiya area. Kept as a separate record from the Torhailoch report because the two ar…
Explosions were reported in Addis Ababa in the early hours of 1 October, with a reported location around the ENDF headquarters in the Torhailoch area. An opposition-linked source is reported…
The ground war, as distinct from the drone incidents that make up most of this ledger. Reuters reports federal forces advancing in southern Tigray and edging closer to Mekelle, the regional …
Fighting in Afar has forced tens of thousands from their homes, per the Afar Pastoralist Development Association via Reuters. The opposition alliance has captured towns in the region; pro-go…
ACLED reports a suicide drone strike believed to have been carried out by the Alliance for Survival against the ENDF air force base in the Mekod area of Bahir Dar on 29 September. 'Mekod' is…
ACLED reports that a suicide drone strike believed to have been carried out by the Alliance for Survival targeted a fuel depot at Kombolcha Airport on 28 September. The targeting claim rests…
A drone strike was reported at Bishoftu around 27 September. Bishoftu hosts a major Ethiopian Air Force installation, which is the presumed reported target, though we have not established th…
What changed
A record that never changes is not being checked. Here is the most recent work, corrections included.
Added to the record and began tracking.
Checked for heat signatures by satellite. Nothing found, but this sensor could not have detected an explosion anyway, so it tells us little.
Compared cloud-free satellite images from before and after, and checked for fires. Neither shows any sign of damage.
Checked satellite images and heat signatures. Nothing found — but a blast being heard would leave no trace either sensor could pick up.
All changes · RSS
How to read this
Each record separates what happened from who says it happened. Sources are archived the moment we cite them, because posts and even wire stories are edited or deleted. Every assessment names the observation that would change our mind — an assessment that cannot be overturned is not analysis.
Read the method in full